Report estimates AHCA cuts $373.6 billion in Medicaid funds to ERC region

CSG-ERC region states would lose $127.1 billion in Medicaid funding from 2019 to 2028 under the American Health Care Act passed by the House last month, according to a new report from the Urban Institute and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Most states are not in a position to fill the Medicaid funding gap that would be created by the AHCA and the authors note that provider rate and benefit cuts are unlikely to generate much savings. States will have to decide whether to fill some or all of the gap with state funds, or cut eligibility to keep state funding level. If all ERC states choose the latter, three million residents of the region would lose coverage. The authors point out that their estimates are very sensitive to changes in Medicaid spending growth and per capita cap growth rates.

Federal Medicaid funding loss, 2019 – 2028 People losing Medicaid coverage to keep state funding level, 2022
CT $5.9 billion 179,600
DE $2.2 billion 47,200
ME $600 million 15,100
MD $11.7 billion 312,700
MA $10.3 billion 355,400
NH $2.2 billion 74,000
NJ $27.5 billion 587,100
NY $46.3 billion 738,700
PA $15.8 billion 612,700
RI $2.9 billion 63,800
VT $1.7 billion 42,500
ERC total $127.1 billion 3,028,800
US total $373.6 billion 14.8 million